Economics

These days economics has a bad reputation. Almost all economic forecasts are wrong. Economists mostly do not even have a vague hunch of how business works.  Indeed, in the past, they only recognised developments, such as the rise of emerging markets, long after they had started. When they actually succeed in observing a development, their analyses of the causes and consequences of economic developments are very often contradictory. With their statements they very often echo special interest groups or ideologies.

However, some decades ago, economics was a highly respected science; its leading thinkers were admired as outstanding personalities. Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes, Nikolai Kondratjew, Friedrich von Hajek, Joseph Schumpeter and many more – they were great minds that fundamentally helped us to understand the economy and society better.

There are still great economists around, but their research is not well known, because it is neither appreciated by burocratic academia nor media craving for sensation.  Therefore, I’d like to use this blog to present their ideas and insights to the public.

 

Preventing financial meltdowns posted November 17 2014

Economic forecasting – voodoo or science? Part 3: Predictions as a social phenomenon posted June 30 2014

Economic forecasting – voodoo or science? Part 2: The odd methods for producing economic forecasts posted June 26 2014

Economic forecasting – voodoo or science? Part 1: Impossible, yet essential posted June 24 2014

From crisis to crisis posted April 11 2014

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“With a Steady Hand”
Welcome to the weblog of Karl-Heinz Thielmann, fund manager, financial analyst, economist and dedicated long-term investor.

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