Blog Archives

Are global prices for natural gas about to converge again?

Due to the nuclear disaster in Fukushima 2011 and the US shale revolution prices for natural gas have developed in different directions in the past. However, this trend seems to have reversed recently.

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Real commodity price trends – part 3: Aluminium

The real price of aluminium is moving in a long-term downward trend. This will not change because of large over-capacities for production in China. The recent pickup in prices only seems to be a “dead cat bounce”.   Source of

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Real commodity price trends – part 2: Crude oil

Despite all efforts to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels, crude oil is still the most used commodity with a daily consumption of approximately 90 million barrels per day. The EIA expects demand to grow to 97 million barrels per

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Real commodity price trends – part 1: Gold

Contrary to popular belief, gold was not a good store of value in the last century. Adjusted for inflation, the gold price behaved very cyclical. Since the 1920iesĀ  it showed a reverse pattern of economic sentiment. During periods of improving

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A perfect bubble?

Stock market price-earnings-ratios are nothing else like inverted earnings yields. They are regularly used to assess the valuation of equities as an asset class. If you apply the same methodology to bond markets, e.g. the German Bund market, it becomes

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US interest rates

Adjusted for inflation, US Treasuries have mainly been a poor investment in the past.

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“With a Steady Hand”
Welcome to the weblog of Karl-Heinz Thielmann, fund manager, financial analyst, economist and dedicated long-term investor.

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