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Real value generator

It is common knowledge that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the equity markets by a wide margin. The degree of outperformance appears especially impressive if it is adjusted for inflation. Since 1964, the value of Berkshire Hathaway increased in

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Posted in Financial Markets, Long-Term Charts

Are global prices for natural gas about to converge again?

Due to the nuclear disaster in Fukushima 2011 and the US shale revolution prices for natural gas have developed in different directions in the past. However, this trend seems to have reversed recently.

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Posted in Long-Term Charts, Long-Term Trends

Real commodity price trends – part 3: Aluminium

The real price of aluminium is moving in a long-term downward trend. This will not change because of large over-capacities for production in China. The recent pickup in prices only seems to be a “dead cat bounce”.   Source of

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Posted in Financial Markets, Long-Term Charts, Long-Term Trends

Real commodity price trends – part 2: Crude oil

Despite all efforts to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels, crude oil is still the most used commodity with a daily consumption of approximately 90 million barrels per day. The EIA expects demand to grow to 97 million barrels per

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Posted in Long-Term Charts, Long-Term Trends

Real commodity price trends – part 1: Gold

Contrary to popular belief, gold was not a good store of value in the last century. Adjusted for inflation, the gold price behaved very cyclical. Since the 1920iesĀ  it showed a reverse pattern of economic sentiment. During periods of improving

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Posted in Long-Term Charts, Long-Term Trends

A perfect bubble?

Stock market price-earnings-ratios are nothing else like inverted earnings yields. They are regularly used to assess the valuation of equities as an asset class. If you apply the same methodology to bond markets, e.g. the German Bund market, it becomes

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Posted in Financial Markets, Long-Term Charts, Long-Term Trends

European defensive sectors are back in favour

During the recent period of euphoria, stock markets neglected defensive sectors. These interrupted their relative outperformance trends. This, however, has changed in the recent weeks.    

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Posted in Financial Markets, Long-Term Charts, Relative Price Charts
“With a Steady Hand”
Welcome to the weblog of Karl-Heinz Thielmann, fund manager, financial analyst, economist and dedicated long-term investor.

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