Blog Archives

Economic forecasting – voodoo or science? Part 3: Predictions as a social phenomenon

a) “Paint a picture to suit yourself …” Not only poor data quality influences the quality of a forecast, but also the deliberate selectivity and manipulation of the data used to draw up a forecast. Although economists and analysts work

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Posted in Economics, Financial Markets

Economic forecasting – voodoo or science? Part 2: The odd methods for producing economic forecasts

a) “Garbage in, garbage out” If predictions are drawn up on the basis of data analyses, the quality of the underlying data is crucial. The most sophisticated forecast model is absolutely no good if the quality of the information entered

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Posted in Economics, Financial Markets

Economic forecasting – voodoo or science? Part 1: Impossible, yet essential

“Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future.” Warren Buffett A forecast or prediction is a statement about the events, conditions or developments that are expected to happen in the future. The difference between a forecast

Posted in Economics, Financial Markets

A perfect bubble?

Stock market price-earnings-ratios are nothing else like inverted earnings yields. They are regularly used to assess the valuation of equities as an asset class. If you apply the same methodology to bond markets, e.g. the German Bund market, it becomes

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Posted in Financial Markets, Long-Term Charts, Long-Term Trends

European defensive sectors are back in favour

During the recent period of euphoria, stock markets neglected defensive sectors. These interrupted their relative outperformance trends. This, however, has changed in the recent weeks.    

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Posted in Financial Markets, Long-Term Charts, Relative Price Charts

The risks of risk management

Risk management involves systematically identifying and evaluating risks as well as managing the response to the risks that have been identified. It is usually performed by specialised employees within a company and has become increasingly important since the 2008 financial

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Posted in Financial Markets

Quality is outperforming again

Quality shares, measured by the STOXX® Global Strong Quality 50, have resumed their outperformance vs. global equities.

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Posted in Financial Markets, Long-Term Charts, Relative Price Charts
“With a Steady Hand”
Welcome to the weblog of Karl-Heinz Thielmann, fund manager, financial analyst, economist and dedicated long-term investor.

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