Blog Archives

The foreseeable fall of a stock market darling

In the Canadian province of Quebec there was once a relatively average pharmaceutical company. But then some financial wizards of the McKinsey school of magic joined its top management, and they wanted to be big and powerful. Incidentally, at the

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Posted in Behavioural Finance, Financial Markets

Smart Beta = Very Stupid No-Alpha

In recent years a new category of investment products has emerged. Companies offering these products claim that they are able to systemically outperform a market index in the long run – a promise that has rarely been fulfilled within the

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Posted in Behavioural Finance, Financial Markets

The basics of investing in under an hour

Bill Ackman explains the basics of investing in under an hour. Amazing!

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Posted in Financial Markets

Real value generator

It is common knowledge that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the equity markets by a wide margin. The degree of outperformance appears especially impressive if it is adjusted for inflation. Since 1964, the value of Berkshire Hathaway increased in

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Posted in Financial Markets, Long-Term Charts

Preventing financial meltdowns

A great video with Tim Harford from the FT, putting financial meltdowns into the broader context of complexity.

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Posted in Economics, Financial Markets

Real commodity price trends – part 3: Aluminium

The real price of aluminium is moving in a long-term downward trend. This will not change because of large over-capacities for production in China. The recent pickup in prices only seems to be a “dead cat bounce”.   Source of

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Posted in Financial Markets, Long-Term Charts, Long-Term Trends

Economic forecasting – voodoo or science? Part 4: The bottom line

Economic forecasts are not complete nonsense or impossible per se. Indeed, it is the way they are usually drawn up these days that can give rise to substantial problems. The quality of the underlying data is often poor. Or it

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Posted in Economics, Financial Markets
“With a Steady Hand”
Welcome to the weblog of Karl-Heinz Thielmann, fund manager, financial analyst, economist and dedicated long-term investor.

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