In the Canadian province of Quebec there was once a relatively average pharmaceutical company. But then some financial wizards of the McKinsey school of magic joined its top management, and they wanted to be big and powerful. Incidentally, at the…
In recent years a new category of investment products has emerged. Companies offering these products claim that they are able to systemically outperform a market index in the long run – a promise that has rarely been fulfilled within the…
Bill Ackman explains the basics of investing in under an hour. Amazing!
It is common knowledge that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the equity markets by a wide margin. The degree of outperformance appears especially impressive if it is adjusted for inflation. Since 1964, the value of Berkshire Hathaway increased in…
A great video with Tim Harford from the FT, putting financial meltdowns into the broader context of complexity.
The real price of aluminium is moving in a long-term downward trend. This will not change because of large over-capacities for production in China. The recent pickup in prices only seems to be a “dead cat bounce”. Source of…
Economic forecasts are not complete nonsense or impossible per se. Indeed, it is the way they are usually drawn up these days that can give rise to substantial problems. The quality of the underlying data is often poor. Or it…
a) “Paint a picture to suit yourself …” Not only poor data quality influences the quality of a forecast, but also the deliberate selectivity and manipulation of the data used to draw up a forecast. Although economists and analysts work…
a) “Garbage in, garbage out” If predictions are drawn up on the basis of data analyses, the quality of the underlying data is crucial. The most sophisticated forecast model is absolutely no good if the quality of the information entered…
“Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future.” Warren Buffett A forecast or prediction is a statement about the events, conditions or developments that are expected to happen in the future. The difference between a forecast…
With a Steady Hand 