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Economic forecasting – voodoo or science? Part 3: Predictions as a social phenomenon

a) “Paint a picture to suit yourself …” Not only poor data quality influences the quality of a forecast, but also the deliberate selectivity and manipulation of the data used to draw up a forecast. Although economists and analysts work

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Posted in Economics, Financial Markets

Economic forecasting – voodoo or science? Part 2: The odd methods for producing economic forecasts

a) “Garbage in, garbage out” If predictions are drawn up on the basis of data analyses, the quality of the underlying data is crucial. The most sophisticated forecast model is absolutely no good if the quality of the information entered

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Posted in Economics, Financial Markets

Economic forecasting – voodoo or science? Part 1: Impossible, yet essential

“Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future.” Warren Buffett A forecast or prediction is a statement about the events, conditions or developments that are expected to happen in the future. The difference between a forecast

Posted in Economics, Financial Markets
“With a Steady Hand”
Welcome to the weblog of Karl-Heinz Thielmann, fund manager, financial analyst, economist and dedicated long-term investor.

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